  |  |  |  | | |
First Time Nerves?
It’s become the Government’s Get out of Jail Free card.
Accept that turnout in the Police and Crime Commissioner elections will be on the floor – but add that “first elections are always difficult”.
Today David Cameron added his name to the list – explaining at PMQs that of course this was always going to happen – it’s a “first election.”
The PM’s comments follow a week of chaos as £350,000 of English-only ballot papers went to the shredder in Wales. Public meetings are going empty and polling is showing only 15% of people are likely to vote. And today many voters are beginning to receive direct mail from authorities – on the same day that voter registration closes.
We’ve estimated turnout at 18.5%. It was a fairly conservative estimate and many are now suggesting figures in areas without Westminster by-elections or Mayoral contests will barely enter double digits.
But we thought first elections – while bad – have never been anything like this? So we had a look at first time elections for English Mayors.
First Time Elections – turnout for mayoral elections in England
| Area | Referendum | 1st Election |
| Watford | 25% | 2002 – 37% |
| Doncaster | 25% (2001) | 2002 – 27% |
| Hartlepool | 34% | 2002 – 29% |
| Lewisham | 18% | 2002 – 25% |
| Middlesbrough | 34% | 2002 – 42% |
| North Tyneside | 36% | 2002 – 42%2003 – 31% |
| Newham | 26% | 2002 – 26% |
| Bedford | 16% | 2002 – 25% |
| Hackney | 59% | 2002 – 26% |
| Mansfield | 55% | 2002 – 19% |
| Stoke on Trent | 2002 – 27% Y2008 – 19% N | 2002 – 24% |
| Torbay | 32% | 2005 – 24% |
| Tower Hamlets | 62% | 2010 – 26% |
| Salford | 18% | 2012 – 26% |
| Liverpool | / | 2012 – 31% |
First Time Elections – turnout for devolved elections in Wales, Scotland and London
| First Election | |
| Scotland | 1999 – 59.10% |
| Wales | 1999 – 46.30% |
| London | 2000 – 34.40% |
A ‘difficult first election’ does not let the government off the hook on low turnout. The relatively low figures achieved in first time elections for English mayors are a million miles away from November’s expected numbers.
The fact is the Government isn’t just repeating past mistakes. It’s thrown in some new ones for good measure.
-
Tom Sheldon
-
http://www.hillfoot.org/blog Ian Sheppard
6 Chancel Street
London
SE1 OUU
United Kingdom
  |
A company limited by guarantee. registered in London, no. 958404. All content © 2013 Electoral Reform Society.
Promoted by Kate West, on behalf of the Electoral Reform Society, both at 6 Chancel St, London SE1 0UU |