The Election that Never Was

Published: Thursday, November 1st 2007

How just 8,000 voters could have handed power to the Conservatives on November 1st

Research from the Electoral Reform Society has revealed just how few votes were required to swing the general election from Labour.

A combination of our winner takes all system and new parliamentary boundaries, mean that a mere 8000 votes could have delivered a new government in Britain.

Dr Ken Ritchie, Chief Executive of the Electoral Reform Society said:

“Discussion today will focus on the Prime Minister’s loss of nerve, on an election that never was. But there was never a clear imperative to call an election on May, and if these numbers show one thing it is that this country simply does not need another unreconstructed election.

“Brown’s opponents may be claiming that a new government needs a mandate. Well a mandate delivered by 8000 people in the swing seats is no mandate at all.

“We call on the Prime Minister and to go back to his Route map to constitutional reform. Because at our next general election (whenever that may be), he should know that the voters of Britain deserve better.”

**download data here:**

Notes to editors:

Explanatory note:

• There are 25 seats italicised among the Labour held marginals, going down to Calder Valley, that make the difference between Labour having a majority of 48 (i.e. the same as 2005 allowing for the new boundaries) and losing an overall majority.
• There are 9 seats italicised among the Labour targets that Labour needs to 'gain' because of the effect of boundary changes in order to preserve the 2005 election majority of 66.
• The other seat that matters is Dunfermline & West Fife, where Labour lost the seat to the Lib Democrats in the by-election in 2006 and will need to win it back. It does not feature on the tables because these all use 2005 as a baseline.
• Labour's success or otherwise depends on those 25 seats (and the 8,000 odd key voters therein) which are of absolutely key importance (labelled Category A in the charts)
• The 9 seats that would restore Labour's majority to 66, and those the Conservatives need in order to pull one seat ahead of Labour in a hung parliament, are also key seats and are labelled Category B in the charts.
• Remaining seats that come within our marginal listings are labelled Category C.
• When mapping these, it would make sense to shade/ colour A, B and C differently. One may wish to add some more Category C seats to cover those seats the Conservatives need for an overall majority of 1.
• Seats not in any of these categories (i.e. the majority of constituencies) are essentially irrelevant to the national contest.
• Calculations, etc of the implications of swings, which seats matter and the categories are the work of the Electoral Reform Society. Calculations of results under new boundaries are attributed to the work of Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher of Plymouth University (Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies, Editorial Media Group, 2007)

For further information

Please contact the Press Office at the Electoral Reform Society on 020 7928 1622 or Ashley Dé on 07968791684