How the 2024 election could have looked with proportional representation

And the results are out. This election has the biggest difference ever between how we voted and the MPs that now represent us.

This was the first election ever where four parties got over 10% of the vote share. It is clear that the British public is already voting as if we have a proportional system.

But what if we had used the same electoral system they use for the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments instead? With the Additional Member System (AMS) you choose a constituency candidate and have a second vote for your preferred party to represent you regionally. You can cast both votes for the same party or vote for different parties in your constituency and regional ballots. Regional seats are then allocated to parties on a proportional basis, taking into account the constituency MPs each party won.

It is important to note from the outset that it is impossible to predict with certainty what electoral results under different voting systems would be. This projection is merely an indication of what the results of this general election – conducted under FPTP – could have looked like using a different electoral system. 

It is of course impossible to account for the other changes that would accompany a switch to an alternative electoral system, such as changes in voter behaviour, party campaigning, or the number of parties standing candidates.

Our projection shows a result that is more in line with how we voted at the 2024 general election. Based on our projection, the Labour Party is still the largest party, but more in line with their percentage of the vote.

While Labour have fewer seats, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, SNP, Green Party and Reform UK have shares far closer to their share of the vote.

No government should be able to win a big majority on a minority of the vote. Westminster’s voting system is warping our politics and we’re all paying the price. Under a proportional voting system, seats more closely match votes, so we can all have more impact on what happens in Westminster.

This projection is based on a model of AMS with half constituency MPs and half regional list MPs. The regional lists are based on Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland plus the regions of England. Due to the complexities of the party system, Northern Ireland has not been modelled.