The latest Barn Cymru poll released earlier in December by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University’s Wales Governance Centre suggests that Plaid Cymru could be the largest party in the Senedd come 2026. The poll put Plaid on 24 percent of the vote, ahead of Labour and Reform UK who both were on 23 percent, and the Conservatives on 19 percent.
At Plaid Cymru’s autumn conference back in October ERS Cymru held a fringe event asking “Where next for Welsh democracy?”. Baroness Smith of Llanfaes, member of the House of Lords; Heledd Fychan MS, Member of the Senedd for South Wales Central and Member of the Reform Bill Committee; and Councillor Elin Hywel, Cyngor Gwynedd (Gwynedd County Council), gathered to share their thoughts on the topic with Jess Blair, ERS Cymru Director chairing the discussion.
House of Lords Reform
Baroness Smith described how her first 6 months in the House of Lords has only made her more certain that our completely unelected second chamber is entirely inappropriate. Advocating for a fully elected chamber and flagging how the demographic skew in the make-up of the Lords marks their debates, giving the example of the debate on VAT charges for private schools, where many lords stood up and spoke on behalf of the 3% of children who attend private schools in the UK, yet hardly any for the 97% in state schools.
Baroness Smith stated that the removal of hereditary peers is a good first step towards reforming the House of Lords, but there is plenty more to be done. She would like to see the Labour government implementing more of their plans on House of Lords reform alongside other democratic reforms at Westminster – as detailed in the Brown Commission report.
Senedd Reform
Over the last few years, Senedd reform has, quite rightly, dominated discussions in Cardiff Bay. As Plaid Cymru’s representative on the Reform Bill Committee, Heledd Fychan MS spoke of how needed these reforms are, especially around the increase in number of members to 96. Her experience as a Councillor on Rhondda Cynon Taf council (with 75 councillors) showed her how a larger Senedd could improve scrutiny and committee work – a vital part of holding the Welsh Government to account and ensuring the best policies and legislation for the people of Wales.
She spoke of how the system wasn’t perfect, for example with the closed list PR electoral system, and raised how there were areas where Plaid are very disappointed. In particular with the withdrawal of the Bill which would have introduced legislative gender quotas. However she stated that it was still a marked improvement on the current system. Increasing the number of politicians is never going to be a popular decision, Heledd emphasised the need to parties and MSs to make the positive case for Senedd reform to the public.
With all of the changes happening ahead of the 2026 Senedd election, Heledd stressed the importance of clear communication to the electorate. She highlighted that in 2021 the potential of 16 and 17 year olds getting to vote wasn’t realised and that it was up to parties to make sure that they are appealing to newly enfranchised voters.
STV for Local Government
The option for local governments to move to a Single Transferable Vote (STV) system for their elections came in with the Local Government and Elections (Wales) Act 2021. Cllr Elin Hywel spoke of how vital it was that councils start having this conversation about democracy at a local level and how everyone in the community can be represented. The positive response of local people to Cyngor Gwynedd’s consultation on the change (over 72% of respondents in favour) showed the level of support improving local democracy.
The barriers to councils in Wales making the move to STV include the permissive nature of the change, putting all of the pressure on individual councils and Elin highlighted the sense that they were “doing this on our own” and whether it was fair to be going forward alone. She also raised the big challenge of getting a 2/3rd majority of councillors to vote for the change (46 of the 75 councillors on Cyngor Gwynedd), not least because the previous council meeting only had 45 councillors attend. The legislation as written has no flexibility for if councillors are off on sickness leave, maternity, or if a seat isn’t currently filled. It requires 2/3rd of the total number of councillors to vote yes for the change to happen no matter the circumstances at that time.
Elin spoke of the legislation requiring councils to lead by example and be brave, two things which Gwynedd has a history of doing, and the need for conversations between councils to share experiences and talk about councillors’ fears around the unknown. She also called for the Welsh Government to provide more guidance and support for councils in making these decisions going forward.
Next Steps
Less than two weeks after our fringe event, Cyngor Gwynedd held their historic vote on changing their electoral system to STV. With few exceptions the level of debate was high, as was the number of contributions across the chamber. Unfortunately, the vote in Gwynedd was lost and while the majority of councillors, 45 of the 75, voted for a fairer way to elect the council, it fell just one short of the two-thirds needed.
It was clear from our fringe event that Plaid’s ambition is to improve democracy at all levels of government for Wales. Given the potential for Plaid to become the largest party in the Senedd at the 2026 elections this continued commitment to improving democracy is exciting. We will be working with all parties ahead of the 2026 Senedd elections to ensure that their manifestos commit to improving democracy across Wales.
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