Should 10,000 voters be able to decide who runs Britain?
New analysis of Labour’s target seats for the 2015 General Election have shown just how few people are required to change the Government of this country.
Just 10,000 voters changing their mind next polling day could propel Labour to the largest party. 70,000 would provide a 1 seat majority – 150,000 voters would give Labour a thumping 60 seat majority.
Why should any of this matter?
Our politics remains in thrall to the priorities and interests of a handful of people. These Golden Voters are the ones that count. Focus Groups will distil their fears, aspirations and desires, which will in turn inform the presentation – and the substance – of policy initiatives and manifestos.
“Will it play well in Thurrock?” will be the conversation now being had at Labour high command, as the party sets about developing policy for the 2015.
It’s Not quite the ‘One Nation‘ of Labour rhetoric, but then our elections militate against equality.
This isn’t a criticism of any one party. They’re all playing the only game in town. Any sensible party strategist, facing limited resources and with an eye on power, will put a relentless focus on the few votes that matter. It’s the inescapable logic of politics under First Past the Post.
The country faces hard choices. It’s a shame the interests of Britain will continue to play second fiddle to the interests of a handful of voters in a handful of marginals.
The Seats that Matter
Seat |
Party Control |
Votes required to switch seat |
Political Impact |
North Warwickshire |
Con |
28
|
|
Thurrock |
Con |
47
|
|
Hendon |
Con |
54
|
|
Cardiff North |
Con |
97
|
|
Sherwood |
Con |
108
|
|
Norwich South |
LD |
156
|
|
Stockton South |
Con |
167
|
|
Broxtowe |
Con |
195
|
|
Lancaster and Fleetwood |
Con |
167
|
|
Bradford East |
LD |
183
|
|
Amber Valley |
Con |
269
|
|
Waveney |
Con |
385
|
|
Wolverhampton SW |
Con |
346
|
|
Marcambe and Lunesdale |
Con |
434
|
|
Carlisle |
Con |
427
|
|
Stroud |
Con |
650
|
|
Weaver Vale |
Con |
496
|
|
Lincoln |
Con |
530
|
|
Brighton Pavilion |
Green |
627
|
|
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport |
Con |
575
|
|
Dewsbury |
Con |
764
|
|
Warrington South |
Con |
777
|
|
Brent Central |
LD |
673
|
|
Bedford |
Con |
677
|
|
Brighton Kemptown |
Con |
664
|
|
Pudsey |
Con |
830
|
Labour Largest Party |
Brentford and Isleworth |
Con |
980
|
|
Hove |
Con |
935
|
|
Enfield North |
Con |
847
|
|
Hastings and Rye |
Con |
997
|
|
Manchester Withington |
LD |
948
|
|
Burnley |
Con |
910
|
|
Ipswich |
Con |
1040
|
|
Dundee East |
SNP |
911
|
|
East Dunbartonshire |
LD |
1093
|
|
Halesowen and Rowley Regis |
Con |
1012
|
|
Nuneaton |
Con |
1035
|
|
Gloucester |
Con |
1211
|
|
Northampton North |
Con |
969
|
|
Bury North |
Con |
1122
|
|
Kingswood |
Con |
1223
|
|
Erewash |
Con |
1251
|
|
Blackpool North and Cleveleys |
Con |
1076
|
|
City of Chester |
Con |
1292
|
|
Arfon |
PC |
728
|
|
Croydon Central |
Con |
1440
|
|
Worcester |
Con |
1491
|
|
Keighley |
Con |
1471
|
|
Wirral West |
Con |
1219
|
|
Cannock Chase |
Con |
1598
|
|
Loughborough |
Con |
1873
|
|
Harrow East |
Con |
1702
|
|
Warwick and Leamington |
Con |
1757
|
|
Birmingham Yardley |
LD |
1502
|
|
South Swindon |
Con |
1773
|
|
Ealing Central and Acton |
Con |
1859
|
|
Pendle |
Con |
1793
|
|
Stevenage |
Con |
1790
|
|
Elmet and Rothwell |
Con |
2261
|
|
Edinburgh West |
LD |
1902
|
|
Watford |
Con |
2271
|
|
Carmathen West and South Pembrokeshire |
Con |
1712
|
|
Vale of Glamorgan |
Con |
2154
|
|
Argyll and Bute |
LD |
2010
|
|
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale |
Con |
2098
|
|
Carmathen East and Dinefwr |
PC |
1741
|
|
Norwich North |
Con |
1951
|
|
High Peak |
Con |
2339
|
Labour MAJORITY |
Milton Keynes South |
Con |
2601
|
|
Rossendale and Darwen |
Con |
2247
|
|
Cleethorpes |
Con |
2150
|
|
North East Somerset |
Con |
2458
|
|
Great Yarmouth |
Con |
2139
|
|
Dudley South |
Con |
1928
|
|
Dover |
Con |
2638
|
|
Colne Valley |
Con |
2926
|
|
South Ribble |
Con |
2778
|
|
Peterborough |
Con |
2431
|
|
Stafford |
Con |
2731
|
|
Stourbridge |
Con |
2582
|
|
Harlow |
Con |
2463
|
|
Aberconwy |
Con |
1700
|
|
Ilford North |
Con |
2703
|
|
Preseli Pembrokeshire |
Con |
2303
|
|
Brigg and Goole |
Con |
2574
|
|
Crewe and Nandwich |
Con |
3024
|
|
Bristol NW |
Con |
3029
|
|
Battersea |
Con |
2989
|
|
Finchley and Golders Green |
Con |
2905
|
|
Calder Valley |
Con |
3216
|
|
Redcar |
LD |
2608
|
|
Crawley |
Con |
2965
|
|
Hornsey and Wood Green |
LD |
3438
|
|
Reading West |
Con |
3003
|
|
Rugby |
Con |
3001
|
|
Burton |
Con |
3153
|
|
Cardiff Central |
LD |
2289
|
Labour majority of 60 |
South Basildon and East Thurrock |
Con |
2887
|
|
Tamworth |
Con |
3046
|
|
Redditch |
Con |
2911
|
|
Chatham and Aylesford |
Con |
3035
|
|
North Swindon |
Con |
3531
|
|
Cambridge |
LD |
3724
|
|
Bermondsey and Old Southwark |
LD |
4263
|
|
Bristol West |
LD |
5684
|
|
Leeds NW |
LD |
5761
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cumulative vote change |
Outcome |
10,326 |
Labour Largest Party |
69,274 |
Labour Majority of 1 |
148,585 |
Labour Majority of 60 |