All votes are equal. But some voters are more equal than others.

Electoral Reform Society
Author:
Electoral Reform Society

Posted on the 1st February 2015

Should 10,000 voters be able to decide who runs Britain?

 New analysis of Labour’s target seats for the 2015 General Election have shown just how few people are required to change the Government of this country.

Just 10,000 voters changing their mind next polling day could propel Labour to the largest party. 70,000 would provide a 1 seat majority – 150,000 voters would give Labour a thumping 60 seat majority.

Why should any of this matter?

Our politics remains in thrall to the priorities and interests of a handful of people. These Golden Voters are the ones that count.  Focus Groups will distil their fears, aspirations and desires, which will in turn inform the presentation – and the substance – of policy initiatives and manifestos.

 

“Will it play well in Thurrock?” will be the conversation now being had at Labour high command, as the party sets about developing policy for the 2015.

 

It’s Not quite the ‘One Nation‘ of Labour rhetoric, but then our elections militate against equality.

 

This isn’t a criticism of any one party. They’re all playing the only game in town. Any sensible party strategist, facing limited resources and with an eye on power, will put a relentless focus on the few votes that matter. It’s the inescapable logic of politics under First Past the Post.

 

The country faces hard choices. It’s a shame the interests of Britain will continue to play second fiddle to the interests of a handful of voters in a handful of marginals.

 

 

The Seats that Matter

Seat Party Control Votes required to switch seat Political Impact
North Warwickshire Con

28

Thurrock Con

47

Hendon Con

54

Cardiff North Con

97

Sherwood Con

108

Norwich South LD

156

Stockton South Con

167

Broxtowe Con

195

Lancaster and Fleetwood Con

167

Bradford East LD

183

Amber Valley Con

269

Waveney Con

385

Wolverhampton SW Con

346

Marcambe and Lunesdale Con

434

Carlisle Con

427

Stroud Con

650

Weaver Vale Con

496

Lincoln Con

530

Brighton Pavilion Green

627

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport Con

575

Dewsbury Con

764

Warrington South Con

777

Brent Central LD

673

Bedford Con

677

Brighton Kemptown Con

664

Pudsey Con

830

Labour Largest Party
Brentford and Isleworth Con

980

Hove Con

935

Enfield North Con

847

Hastings and Rye Con

997

Manchester Withington LD

948

Burnley Con

910

Ipswich Con

1040

Dundee East SNP

911

East Dunbartonshire LD

1093

Halesowen and Rowley Regis Con

1012

Nuneaton Con

1035

Gloucester Con

1211

Northampton North Con

969

Bury North Con

1122

Kingswood Con

1223

Erewash Con

1251

Blackpool North and Cleveleys Con

1076

City of Chester Con

1292

Arfon PC

728

Croydon Central Con

1440

Worcester Con

1491

Keighley Con

1471

Wirral West Con

1219

Cannock Chase Con

1598

Loughborough Con

1873

Harrow East Con

1702

Warwick and Leamington Con

1757

Birmingham Yardley LD

1502

South Swindon Con

1773

Ealing Central and Acton Con

1859

Pendle Con

1793

Stevenage Con

1790

Elmet and Rothwell Con

2261

Edinburgh West LD

1902

Watford Con

2271

Carmathen West and South Pembrokeshire Con

1712

Vale of Glamorgan Con

2154

Argyll and Bute LD

2010

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Con

2098

Carmathen East and Dinefwr PC

1741

Norwich North Con

1951

High Peak Con

2339

Labour MAJORITY
Milton Keynes South Con

2601

Rossendale and Darwen Con

2247

Cleethorpes Con

2150

North East Somerset Con

2458

Great Yarmouth Con

2139

Dudley South Con

1928

Dover Con

2638

Colne Valley Con

2926

South Ribble Con

2778

Peterborough Con

2431

Stafford Con

2731

Stourbridge Con

2582

Harlow Con

2463

Aberconwy Con

1700

Ilford North Con

2703

Preseli Pembrokeshire Con

2303

Brigg and Goole Con

2574

Crewe and Nandwich Con

3024

Bristol NW Con

3029

Battersea Con

2989

Finchley and Golders Green Con

2905

Calder Valley Con

3216

Redcar LD

2608

Crawley Con

2965

Hornsey and Wood Green LD

3438

Reading West Con

3003

Rugby Con

3001

Burton Con

3153

Cardiff Central LD

2289

Labour majority of 60
South Basildon and East Thurrock Con

2887

Tamworth Con

3046

Redditch Con

2911

Chatham and Aylesford Con

3035

North Swindon Con

3531

Cambridge LD

3724

Bermondsey and Old Southwark LD

4263

Bristol West LD

5684

Leeds NW LD

5761

 

 

 

 

Cumulative vote change Outcome
10,326 Labour Largest Party
69,274 Labour Majority of 1
148,585 Labour Majority of 60

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