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Changes to First Past the Post style Electoral College increase chances of Trump victory

Barring an act of God, 5 November 2024 will see a rematch of the 2020 US Presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Looking back at the nationwide result in 2020, you would be...

Posted 26 Mar 2024

Biden won by 7000000 but Trump just needs to gain 44000 in the right places

Vote splitting trick won’t work with Scotland’s Single Transferable Vote

On March 7th voters in Hillhead in Glasgow will be heading to the polls for a council by-election. Among those standing are candidates from the Scottish Greens and Independent Green Voice (IGV) – plenty of...

Posted 04 Mar 2024

Independent Green Voice is far from what you might expect from the name

How many hung parliaments has the UK had?

Westminster’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system often results in some parties gaining far more seats than their vote share deserves. But there is no guarantee that this un-earned ‘bonus’ always means one party gets...

Posted 14 Feb 2024

First Past the Post has often failed to live up to its supporters promises

Change to London mayoral elections complicates thinking for independent candidates

Over the weekend The Sun reported on rumours that Paul Scully MP, the former Conservative Minister for London, was considering running as an independent candidate for London mayor. We can’t comment on whether these Tory...

Posted 05 Feb 2024

The Sun reported on rumours that Paul Scully MP, was considering running as an independent

First past the post distorts public opinion on small boats

Last week’s YouGov MRP poll showing Labour on course for a 1997-style general election victory created a big splash. In addition to asking about people’s general election voting intention, YouGov asked respondents about their views...

Posted 22 Jan 2024

Across the UK opinion is evenly divided on the issue of right of appeal

Changing boundaries shouldn’t change election results

For the past 30 years, political scientists Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have been investigating how new boundaries will impact the political makeup of Parliament. Whenever new constituency maps are designed, they estimate what the...

Posted 16 Jan 2024

Shouldn’t MPs win or lose their seats based on voters changing their minds

The Non-Battleground Election: Millions of voters are ignored

Last week, the Labour Party started the process of selecting their general election candidates for 211 ‘non-battleground’ constituencies in England. The description of these seats as being ‘non-battleground’ is telling, implying that Labour will not...

Posted 18 Dec 2023