Unlike the UK, Ireland’s voting system can cope with changing voter preferences

Author:
Ian Simpson, Research Officer

Posted on the 28th November 2024

When Ireland goes to the polls for its general election, on Friday 29 November, it will mark over 100 years of elections using the Single Transferable Vote (STV) form of proportional representation  for the Irish Parliament, the Dail Eireann.

The first contested election for the Dail, the lower house of Ireland’s parliament, took place in 1922. STV was used in that general election and has been used in every Irish general election since, despite two attempts in the twentieth century to switch to the First Past the Post (FPTP) system used for UK general elections. On both occasions, in 1959 and 1968 referendums, the Irish people voted to stick with STV.

STV is our preferred form of proportional representation. It places maximum power in the hands of voters by increasing the proportion of votes that make a difference. On the ballot paper, voters write a number by as many or as few candidates as they wish, in order of preference. If an elector’s first choice candidate doesn’t win enough votes to be elected or that candidate has already been elected with more votes than required, then the elector’s vote is transferred to their second preference candidate and so on.

Under STV, multiple representatives are elected to represent each constituency. In Ireland between 3 and 5 Teachta Dala (TDs) are elected per constituency, ensuring that the diversity of opinion in the area is properly represented. The vote transfer process described above takes place until all the positions in the constituency are filled.

Ireland’s historical big parties

Throughout the history of the Irish Republic, politics has been dominated by two centre-right parties – Finna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG) – which emerged from a split in Sinn Féin between supporters and rejectors of the Anglo-Irish Treaty, which created the Irish Free State.

FF and FG (and their predecessor groups in the 1920s and early 1930s) were the two largest parties at every general election between 1922 and 2007. Their combined seat total was above 70% throughout most of this period and was above 80% at many general elections. Indeed Finna Fáil were able to form a number of single-party majority governments in the twentieth century, while Fine Gael’s terms in government tended to rely on coalitions with smaller parties, most notably the Irish Labour party. Irish Taoiseachs, or Prime Ministers, have only ever come from FF or FG (or FG’s predecessor from 1922-1932).

This shows that it is possible for a two-party or two and a half party system to operate under a proportional representation system, if those parties can attract the support of a large part of the population.

Realignment of the Irish party system

In the last two decades, however, the Irish electorate has started to realign. In 2011, FF suffered a massive slump in support, going from 47% of seats in 2007 to just 12%. This was by far their worst ever result and they were pushed into third place by the Labour party. The combined FG-FF seat share, at 58%, was the lowest in the history of Dail elections.

Although FF recovered somewhat at the 2016 election, recovering their second placed position behind FG, the combined FG-FF vote barely rose to 59%. At the last general election, in 2020, this realignment reached a new high when the combined FF-FG seat share fell below half for the first time, dropping to just 46%. This time it was FG that was pushed into third place, with 35 TDs, behind Sinn Féin with 37 TDs and FF with 38 TDs. For the first time ever, neither FG or FF were the party with the most first preference votes. This honour went to Sinn Féin. The government formed after the 2020 election was an unprecedented FF-FG coalition, with support from the Greens.

Ireland’s STV system of proportional representation has been able to cope with this realigning electorate and still accurately reflect how people have voted. This is a stark contrast to the First Past the Post system used for UK general elections. The 2024 UK general election was the most disproportional on record, with Labour winning about two-thirds of seats with just over one-third of votes. The combined Labour-Conservative vote share, at 57.4%, was the lowest in the era of universal suffrage. Yet these parties still have over 80% of seats in parliament.

When voters in Ireland wanted a two-party system, they got it. People are now voting for a much wider range of parties and candidates in both countries. Ireland’s electoral system can cope with this. The UK’s electoral system cannot.

According to opinion polls, this week’s election could see an even more fragmented outcome than last time, with FG, FF and Sinn Féin all at around 20% support, with independent candidates also polling close to 20%. Whatever the overall outcome, voters in Ireland can be sure that under STV their votes will be accurately translated into representation in the Dail.

We will be watching the vote counts and the vital vote transfers with interest, as they are conducted over the weekend.

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