Safe Seats

Reading the tea leaves
You don't need to be psychic to predict a safe seat

Safe Seats

In safe seats odds are firmly stacked against any voters looking for change.

Safe seats are the 21st Century's rotten boroughs. The average constituency last changed hands between parties in the 1960s, with some super safe seats having remained firmly in one-party control since the time of Queen Victoria.

The majority of seats can be predicted because of Westminster’s broken First Past the Post electoral system.

As constituencies are small and only elect one MP, rival parties often don’t stand a chance of winning in hundreds of seats across the UK. Even if they have significant support it counts of nothing if they lose. As the loss of safe seats is rare, parties target their resources on a small number of floating voters in marginal seats – meaning they give up on millions of voters across the country. You can find out how much parties spent on your vote here.

Safe seats in 2015

Four weeks away from the election we could predict the results for over half of the total constituencies. 364 seats have been called based on how ‘safe’ they were in 2010, in line with current national and local opinion polls. Find out whether you're in a safe seat here. If you'd like to have a look at all the information you can download it as a spreadsheet.

Safe seats in 2010

In the 2010 General election we were able to call the winners in nearly 400 of Britain’s safe seats. Out of a list of 382 MPs we got two wrong.

2010 was a tale of two elections – and two electorates. One that mattered, and one that didn’t. And for the majority of us the election was over on day one of the campaign.

Read more about Safe Seats on our blog
The Northern Irish Assembly doesn't have safe seats as it uses the Single Transferable Vote
Sign our petition to make seats match votes and end Safe Seats