The Lottery Election

Author:
Chris Terry,

Posted on the 20th May 2015

639 Votes Are All That Would Be Needed to Change the Result of the 2015 election

The 2015 election was won by only six seats. If six constituencies had voted differently then Britain would have a hung parliament and parties would have to work together to secure power.

In the six most marginal Conservative knife-edge majorities exist. In Gower only twenty seven votes separate Labour from the Conservatives. If just fourteen voters in Gower had decided to vote Labour instead of Conservative then it would have been held by the Labour Party.

Overall if 639 votes spread across these constituencies had voted Labour rather than Conservative Britain would now have a hung parliament.

This demonstrates the randomness of Britain’s FPTP electoral system. It also demonstrates the core reliance on a tiny number of swing voters in a tiny number of constituencies.

SeatMajoritySwing
Gower2714
Derby North4121
Croydon Central16583
Vale of Clywd237119
Bury North378190
Morley and Outwood422212
Total639

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